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Cultural Leonesa 0–0 Almeria

← Segunda División 2017 · Fri, Sep 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui Fernandez Orte, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cultural Leonesa win38%2.54
Almeria win33%3.00
Draw29%3.36

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'🟨Jorge Morcillo · Almeria
33'🟨Mandi · Almeria
54'🟨Yeray Gonzalez · Cultural Leonesa
54'🟨Verza · Almeria
56'🟨Ahmad Yasser · Cultural Leonesa
60'🟨Fran Rodríguez · Almeria
77'🟨Jorge Morcillo · Almeria
77'🟥Jorge Morcillo · Almeria
81'🟨Víctor Díaz · Cultural Leonesa
90'🟨Ahmad Yasser · Cultural Leonesa
90'🟨— · Cultural Leonesa
90'🟨Gianni Zuiverloon · Cultural Leonesa
90'🟥Ahmad Yasser · Cultural Leonesa
90'🟨Renê · Almeria

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots7
2On target1
7Corners1
14Fouls21
6Yellow cards6
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCultural LeonesaAlmeria
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.28
box share (last 5)0.520.43
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days516.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Reino de Leon
212.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)—1.83
elo1494.331444.25
elo momentum (last 5)6.774.73
eye test v1-0.05-0.15
eye trend v1-0.16-0.16
first sub minute (last 10)43.5061.30
form points (last 5)10.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)—0.99
keeper form v10.390.70
league points10.0010.00
league rank4.007.00
matches since blank5.003.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.0078.80
possession avg (last 5)56.6054.60
rest days5.196.98
scorer concentration0.200.29
season ppg1.671.67
skill v11.140.57
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.80
state index-0.05-0.27
sterile dominance v11.090.34
threat rate (last 10)0.190.26
threat rate (last 3)0.140.23
threat rate (last 5)0.180.24
venue ppg (last 5)—0.60