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Albacete 2–1 Oviedo

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Sep 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui Fernandez Orte, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win37%2.63
Albacete win32%3.06
Draw31%3.15

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

54'🟨Mariano Bittolo · Albacete
66'⚽Christian Fernández · Oviedo
68'🟨Roman Zozulya · Albacete
69'🟨Hector Verdes · Oviedo
71'⚽Jérémie Bela · Albacete
75'⚽Quim Araujo · Albacete
82'🟨Dani Rodríguez · Albacete
90'🟨Danny Carvajal · Albacete
90'🟨Owusu Kwabena · Oviedo
90'🟨Miguel Linares · Oviedo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
7Shots11
3On target1
7Corners6
21Fouls15
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlbaceteOviedo
accuracy ratio (last 10)—0.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.210.34
box share (last 5)0.550.59
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1668.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCarlos Belmonte
85.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)—2.16
elo1436.641492.53
elo momentum (last 5)-63.3616.57
eye test v1-1.26-0.11
eye trend v10.25-0.14
first sub minute (last 10)58.6060.10
form points (last 5)1.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)—0.85
keeper form v10.64—
league points1.008.00
league rank22.0013.00
matches since blank1.008.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win5.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.2072.40
possession avg (last 5)45.6050.00
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration—0.50
season ppg0.201.60
skill v1-0.84-0.41
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.205.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.204.20
state index-1.360.10
sterile dominance v1-0.16-0.30
threat rate (last 10)0.200.28
threat rate (last 3)0.240.30
threat rate (last 5)0.200.26
venue ppg (last 5)—1.20