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Granada 3–1 Cordoba

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Eduardo Prieto Iglesias, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Granada win39%2.52
Cordoba win31%3.13
Draw30%3.23

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Darwin Machís · Granada
15'🟨Alejandro Alfaro · Cordoba
33'🟨Josema · Cordoba
38'🟨Dani Pinillos · Cordoba
52'⚽Darwin Machís · Granada
67'🟨Víctor Díaz · Granada
82'⚽Joselu · Granada
84'⚽Sergi Guardiola · Cordoba
87'🟨Hernan Menosse · Granada

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
9Shots17
6On target6
4Corners4
17Fouls11
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGranadaCordoba
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.34
box share (last 5)0.490.49
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days84.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNuevo Los Cármenes
326.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.043.71
elo1359.481425.92
elo momentum (last 5)9.188.66
eye test v1-0.940.36
eye trend v10.00-0.30
first sub minute (last 10)54.2060.20
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.16
keeper form v10.560.79
league points4.006.00
league rank20.0014.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win18.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.8080.60
possession avg (last 5)48.4057.80
rest days7.085.92
scorer concentration—0.14
season ppg0.801.20
skill v1-0.580.98
sot against avg (last 5)5.203.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.105.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.604.80
state index-1.37-0.26
sterile dominance v1-0.050.53
threat rate (last 10)0.200.27
threat rate (last 3)0.200.27
threat rate (last 5)0.210.25
venue ppg (last 5)0.401.40