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Oviedo 1–0 Cadiz

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Sep 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Oliver de la Fuente Ramos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win51%1.93
Draw30%3.30
Cadiz win20%4.90

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

36'🟨David Rocha · Oviedo
45'🟨Aaron Ñiguez · Oviedo
64'⚽Toché · Oviedo
81'🟨David Toro · Cadiz
83'🟨Toché · Oviedo
90'🟨Guillermo Cotugno · Oviedo
90'🟨José Ángel Carrillo · Cadiz
90'🟨Álex Fernández · Cadiz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots9
2On target2
3Corners6
14Fouls16
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOviedoCadiz
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.630.65
cards avg (last 5)2.001.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJorge Garbajosa
coach days78.00534.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)—0.20
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.802.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.405.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.607.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.162.22
defensive leak (last 5)—0.01
dominance (last 5)—0.51
elo1494.491558.27
elo momentum (last 5)14.1914.47
eye test v10.250.29
eye trend v1-0.040.06
first sub minute (last 10)60.7059.70
form points (last 5)6.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.17
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v1—0.76
league points6.0010.00
league rank15.004.00
matches since blank9.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.4066.80
possession avg (last 5)49.2045.00
rest days7.929.00
scorer concentration0.43—
season ppg1.202.50
shot diff avg (last 5)—0.40
shots for avg (last 5)—11.40
skill v1-0.36-1.33
sot against avg (last 5)2.803.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.504.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.005.40
squad age29.3427.06
state index0.130.40
sterile dominance v1-0.41-1.11
threat rate (last 10)0.290.27
threat rate (last 3)0.290.31
threat rate (last 5)0.270.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.40