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Cultural Leonesa 3–2 Huesca

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Sep 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Antonio Lopez Toca

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cultural Leonesa win38%2.54
Huesca win32%3.05
Draw30%3.29

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Rodri · Cultural Leonesa
24'⚽Yeray Gonzalez · Cultural Leonesa
32'⚽Cucho Hernández · Huesca
45'⚽ (pen)Yeray Gonzalez · Cultural Leonesa
54'⚽Gonzalo Melero · Huesca
56'🟨Josep Señé · Cultural Leonesa
69'🟨Ariday · Cultural Leonesa
79'⚽Ahmad Yasser · Cultural Leonesa
88'🟨Iza Carcelén · Cultural Leonesa
89'🟨Álex Gallar · Huesca
90'🟨Jorge Palatsí Gallego · Cultural Leonesa
90'🟨Cucho Hernández · Huesca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
10Shots10
4On target3
5Corners7
11Fouls18
5Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCultural LeonesaHuesca
accuracy ratio (last 10)—0.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.21
box share (last 5)0.470.38
cards avg (last 5)—0.00
coach days504.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Reino de Leon
78.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)—4.25
elo1500.841495.81
elo momentum (last 5)—-17.88
eye test v10.30-0.90
eye trend v1—0.31
first sub minute (last 10)57.5061.00
form points (last 5)—5.00
goal diff avg (last 5)—-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)—1.00
goals for avg (last 5)—0.60
goals volatility (last 10)—0.88
keeper form v10.450.75
league points7.005.00
league rank7.0015.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.5074.20
possession avg (last 5)58.0052.60
rest days6.757.83
scorer concentration0.29—
season ppg1.751.25
skill v11.10-0.04
sot against avg (last 5)4.503.40
sot for avg (last 10)—3.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.752.60
state index-0.11-0.42
sterile dominance v10.830.28
threat rate (last 10)—0.23
threat rate (last 3)0.230.27
threat rate (last 5)0.220.21
venue ppg (last 5)—0.80