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CA Osasuna 2–1 Almeria

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Varon Aceiton

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
CA Osasuna win51%1.90
Draw29%3.36
Almeria win20%4.97

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Mandi · Almeria
22'⚽Fidel · Almeria
54'🟨Lucas Torró · CA Osasuna
68'🟨Jorge Morcillo · Almeria
70'⚽Quique · CA Osasuna
71'🟨Oier · CA Osasuna
73'🟨Xisco · CA Osasuna
77'⚽Sebastian Coris · CA Osasuna

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
10Shots8
4On target2
6Corners3
22Fouls19
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCA OsasunaAlmeria
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.33
box share (last 5)0.530.53
cards avg (last 5)0.200.00
coach days107.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio El Sadar
199.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.951.83
elo1386.131439.80
elo momentum (last 5)18.6922.66
eye test v1-0.930.39
eye trend v1-0.10-0.16
first sub minute (last 10)55.7060.30
form points (last 5)5.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.840.88
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.630.66
league points5.007.00
league rank14.009.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.8080.20
possession avg (last 5)39.6053.60
rest days5.987.00
scorer concentration0.33—
season ppg1.251.75
skill v1-1.400.65
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.804.80
state index-0.33-0.05
sterile dominance v1-0.750.04
threat rate (last 10)0.240.24
threat rate (last 3)0.240.25
threat rate (last 5)0.220.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20