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Valladolid 2–1 Granada

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Valladolid win55%1.78
Draw26%3.76
Granada win19%5.15

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Jaime Mata · Valladolid
13'🟨Iban Salvador · Valladolid
16'🟨Jaime Mata · Valladolid
34'🟨Borja · Valladolid
42'🟨Ángel Montoro · Granada
54'🟨Hernan Menosse · Granada
57'🟨Kiko Olivas · Valladolid
57'🟨Darwin Machís · Granada
66'🟨Pablo Hervias · Valladolid
79'🟨Nacho Martinez · Valladolid
80'⚽Giannis Gianniotas · Valladolid
84'⚽Pedro · Granada

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
17Shots10
10On target3
8Corners7
17Fouls11
6Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricValladolidGranada
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.29
box share (last 5)0.680.40
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days77.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJosé Zorrilla
77.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.411.89
elo1499.711364.38
elo momentum (last 5)26.127.66
eye test v11.07-0.48
eye trend v1-0.26-0.17
first sub minute (last 10)62.3048.40
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.140.79
keeper form v10.650.50
league points7.004.00
league rank7.0018.00
matches since blank5.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.0017.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8075.40
possession avg (last 5)52.8047.60
rest days5.926.13
scorer concentration0.43—
season ppg1.751.00
skill v10.45-0.26
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.803.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.332.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.803.40
state index0.35-1.37
sterile dominance v10.02-0.17
threat rate (last 10)0.280.20
threat rate (last 3)0.240.16
threat rate (last 5)0.270.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.40