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Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 0–3 CA Osasuna

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Sep 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge Valdes Aller, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win51%1.90
Draw27%3.58
CA Osasuna win21%4.56

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'🟨Lucas Torró · CA Osasuna
28'⚽Aridane Hernández · CA Osasuna
37'🟨Dorado · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
41'🟨Roberto Torres · CA Osasuna
74'🟨Joaquin Arzura · CA Osasuna
81'🟨Lillo Castellano · CA Osasuna
87'⚽Xisco · CA Osasuna
90'🟨Fran Mérida · CA Osasuna
90'⚽Xisco · CA Osasuna

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
17Shots11
2On target5
3Corners3
10Fouls22
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRayo Vallecano de MadridCA Osasuna
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.30
box share (last 5)0.620.54
cards avg (last 5)0.000.40
coach days221.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Vallecas
101.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.532.97
elo1481.981360.23
elo momentum (last 5)8.201.26
eye test v10.92-0.63
eye trend v10.22-0.30
first sub minute (last 10)57.5053.40
form points (last 5)8.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.060.74
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.780.57
league points5.002.00
league rank12.0018.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.0011.00
matches since win2.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.0072.00
possession avg (last 5)58.0040.40
rest days8.108.10
season ppg1.670.67
skill v11.25-1.11
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.003.20
state index0.03-1.01
sterile dominance v10.39-0.88
threat rate (last 10)0.260.24
threat rate (last 3)0.240.20
threat rate (last 5)0.290.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.00