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Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 0–3 CA Osasuna

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Sep 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge Valdes Aller, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win51%1.90
Draw27%3.58
CA Osasuna win21%4.56

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'🟨Lucas Torró · CA Osasuna
28'⚽Aridane Hernández · CA Osasuna
37'🟨Dorado · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
41'🟨Roberto Torres · CA Osasuna
74'🟨Joaquin Arzura · CA Osasuna
81'🟨Lillo Castellano · CA Osasuna
87'⚽Xisco · CA Osasuna
90'🟨Fran Mérida · CA Osasuna
90'⚽Xisco · CA Osasuna

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
17Shots11
2On target5
3Corners3
10Fouls22
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRayo Vallecano de MadridCA Osasuna
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.620.54
cards avg (last 5)1.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Vallecas
2.80
coach days221.00101.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.10
corner diff avg (last 5)2.00-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.604.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.603.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.532.84
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.15
dominance (last 5)0.600.45
elo1529.101431.93
elo momentum (last 5)24.05-14.69
eye test v10.92-0.63
eye trend v10.22-0.30
first sub minute (last 10)57.5053.40
form points (last 5)11.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.63
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
keeper form v10.780.57
league points5.003.00
league rank13.0019.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.0012.00
matches since win2.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.0072.00
possession avg (last 5)58.0040.40
rest days8.008.00
season ppg1.670.75
shot diff avg (last 5)5.80-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)16.0010.40
skill v11.25-1.11
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.003.20
squad age28.4526.33
state index0.40-0.93
sterile dominance v10.39-0.88
threat rate (last 10)0.260.24
threat rate (last 3)0.240.20
threat rate (last 5)0.290.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.00