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Cultural Leonesa 4–4 Valladolid

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Sep 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge Figueroa Vazquez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cultural Leonesa win37%2.67
Valladolid win33%2.93
Draw30%3.23

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽ (og)Alberto Guitián · Cultural Leonesa
23'🟨Ahmad Yasser · Cultural Leonesa
37'⚽ (pen)Jaime Mata · Valladolid
49'⚽Yeray Gonzalez · Cultural Leonesa
58'🟨Iker Guarrotxena · Cultural Leonesa
60'⚽Alberto Guitián · Valladolid
63'🟨Iván Garrido · Cultural Leonesa
65'⚽ (pen)Pablo Hervias · Valladolid
69'⚽Jaime Mata · Valladolid
79'⚽Rodri · Cultural Leonesa
84'⚽Josep Señé · Cultural Leonesa
90'🟨Jaime Mata · Valladolid

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
11Shots10
5On target6
6Corners7
11Fouls17
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCultural LeonesaValladolid
accuracy ratio (last 10)—0.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.38
box share (last 5)0.420.60
cards avg (last 5)—0.00
coach days497.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Reino de Leon
71.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)—2.79
elo1502.681497.86
elo momentum (last 5)—11.14
eye test v10.250.74
eye trend v1—-0.14
first sub minute (last 10)56.3361.80
form points (last 5)—9.00
goal diff avg (last 5)—0.20
goals against avg (last 5)—1.00
goals for avg (last 5)—1.20
goals volatility (last 10)—0.85
keeper form v1—0.79
league points6.006.00
league rank8.009.00
matches since blank2.004.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.0079.40
possession avg (last 5)58.0054.60
rest days6.926.90
scorer concentration—0.40
season ppg2.002.00
skill v11.050.64
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.80
sot for avg (last 10)—5.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.675.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.676.00
state index-0.020.09
sterile dominance v10.730.15
threat rate (last 10)—0.28
threat rate (last 3)0.230.26
threat rate (last 5)0.230.27
venue ppg (last 5)—1.40