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Tenerife 2–2 Granada

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Sep 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Valentin Pizarro Gomez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife win57%1.72
Draw26%3.69
Granada win17%5.76

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'🟨Víctor Díaz · Granada
18'⚽ (og)Aitor Sanz · Granada
23'🟨Jorge Sáenz · Tenerife
40'🟨Adrian Ramos · Granada
41'🟨Suso · Tenerife
59'🟨Vitolo · Tenerife
66'🟨Suso · Tenerife
66'🟥Suso · Tenerife
72'🟨Sergio Peña · Granada
72'⚽Samuele Longo · Tenerife
90'🟨Filip Malbašić · Tenerife
90'⚽Filip Malbašić · Tenerife
90'⚽ (og)Jorge Sáenz · Granada

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
8Shots8
3On target3
6Corners6
10Fouls17
5Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTenerifeGranada
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.30
box share (last 5)0.560.39
cards avg (last 5)0.000.60
coach days679.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHeliodoro Rodríguez López
71.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.782.23
elo1532.031358.52
elo momentum (last 5)6.17-6.66
eye test v10.47-0.30
eye trend v10.60-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)56.3046.10
form points (last 5)9.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.140.70
keeper form v10.760.53
league points6.003.00
league rank7.0016.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.0016.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.6077.40
possession avg (last 5)46.8051.00
rest days6.698.65
season ppg2.001.00
skill v1-0.390.19
sot against avg (last 5)2.604.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.803.20
sot for avg (last 3)7.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.603.60
state index0.22-1.49
sterile dominance v1-0.520.13
threat rate (last 10)0.260.23
threat rate (last 3)0.310.23
threat rate (last 5)0.270.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.40