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Almeria 2–1 Lorca FC

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Sep 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria win54%1.81
Draw27%3.66
Lorca FC win19%5.07

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'🟨Tropi · Lorca FC
27'🟨Mandi · Almeria
51'🟨Jorge Morcillo · Almeria
57'🟨Renê · Almeria
62'⚽Fran Rodríguez · Almeria
78'🟨Javier Muñoz · Lorca FC
84'⚽Javier Muñoz · Lorca FC
88'🟨Carlos Pomares · Lorca FC
89'⚽Tino Costa · Almeria
90'🟨Juan Pina · Lorca FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
13Shots10
5On target5
6Corners6
14Fouls10
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlmeriaLorca FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.40—
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.570.44
cards avg (last 5)1.801.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio del Mediterráneo
coach days192.0039.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.08—
corner diff avg (last 5)2.60—
corners against avg (last 5)3.60—
corners for avg (last 5)6.20—
corners volatility (last 10)1.90—
defensive leak (last 5)0.13—
dominance (last 5)0.53—
elo1466.551399.84
elo momentum (last 5)0.44-6.08
eye test v10.31-0.17
eye trend v10.02—
first sub minute (last 10)60.0050.00
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.051.06
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.20
keeper form v10.650.80
league points4.004.00
league rank15.0012.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8080.00
possession avg (last 5)53.0047.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.331.33
shot diff avg (last 5)1.40—
shots for avg (last 5)13.80—
skill v10.570.18
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.33
sot for avg (last 10)4.30—
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.00
squad age26.8925.79
state index-0.18-0.68
sterile dominance v1-0.030.27
threat rate (last 10)0.22—
threat rate (last 3)0.260.20
threat rate (last 5)0.290.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.40