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Lorca FC 0–0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Sep 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Saul Ais Reig, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win47%2.10
Draw29%3.33
Lorca FC win24%4.04

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

46'🟨Unai López · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
68'🟨José Carlos Ramírez · Lorca FC
69'🟨Roberto Trashorras · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
82'🟨Fran Cruz · Lorca FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots13
3On target3
6Corners2
10Fouls15
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLorca FCRayo Vallecano de Madrid
accuracy ratio (last 10)—0.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.380.64
cards avg (last 5)0.801.40
coach days32.00213.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)—0.12
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Francisco Artes Carrasco
corner diff avg (last 5)—4.40
corners against avg (last 5)—3.00
corners for avg (last 5)—7.40
corners volatility (last 10)—3.33
defensive leak (last 5)—0.15
dominance (last 5)—0.59
elo1397.751531.18
elo momentum (last 5)-4.7012.28
eye test v1-0.190.83
eye trend v1—0.37
first sub minute (last 10)—57.90
form points (last 5)4.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.100.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v1—0.77
matches since blank0.007.00
matches since clean sheet1.006.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.0080.60
possession avg (last 5)49.5057.60
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.502.00
shot diff avg (last 5)—5.40
shots for avg (last 5)—16.00
skill v10.460.98
sot against avg (last 5)3.503.40
sot for avg (last 10)—5.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.007.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.005.60
squad age25.8128.37
state index-0.490.35
sterile dominance v10.690.03
threat rate (last 10)—0.29
threat rate (last 3)0.170.29
threat rate (last 5)0.170.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.00