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Barcelona B 0–3 Tenerife

← Segunda DivisiΓ³n 2017 Β· Mon, Aug 28, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Saul Ais Reig, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Barcelona B win36%2.72
Tenerife win35%2.81
Draw29%3.31

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'⚽Juan Carlos · Tenerife
33'🟨Vitolo · Tenerife
38'🟨Fali · Barcelona B
39'⚽ (pen)Suso · Tenerife
69'⚽Samuele Longo · Tenerife
74'🟨Vitinho · Barcelona B

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
7Shots17
1On target11
4Corners4
11Fouls16
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBarcelona BTenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)β€”0.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)β€”0.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)β€”0.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)β€”0.53
cards avg (last 5)0.200.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueMini Estadi
coach days790.00666.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)β€”0.11
corner diff avg (last 5)β€”-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)β€”5.20
corners for avg (last 5)β€”4.60
corners volatility (last 10)β€”2.01
defensive leak (last 5)β€”0.12
dominance (last 5)β€”0.52
elo1374.941550.98
elo momentum (last 5)-30.322.48
eye test v1β€”-0.70
eye trend v1β€”0.15
first sub minute (last 10)β€”56.80
form points (last 5)3.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)3.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.070.99
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.35
keeper form v1β€”0.77
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet11.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)β€”67.60
possession avg (last 5)β€”45.60
rest days9.0010.00
season ppg3.003.00
shot diff avg (last 5)β€”0.40
shots for avg (last 5)β€”13.00
skill v1β€”-1.20
sot against avg (last 5)β€”4.00
sot for avg (last 10)β€”4.00
sot for avg (last 3)β€”4.33
sot for avg (last 5)β€”3.40
squad age21.6628.60
state index-0.950.21
sterile dominance v1β€”-0.62
threat rate (last 10)β€”0.23
threat rate (last 3)β€”0.23
threat rate (last 5)β€”0.24
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.40