⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Yeni Malatyaspor 1–2 Bursaspor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sun, May 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ali Palabiyik, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bursaspor win37%2.62
Yeni Malatyaspor win36%2.73
Draw27%3.54

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽ (og)Issam Chebake · Bursaspor
20'⚽Umut Nayir · Bursaspor
35'🟥Mustafa Akbaş · Yeni Malatyaspor
35'🟨Tunay Torun · Bursaspor
61'⚽Aboubakar Kamara · Yeni Malatyaspor
69'🟨Arturo Mina · Yeni Malatyaspor
75'🟨Aytaç Kara · Bursaspor
76'🟨Guilherme · Yeni Malatyaspor
78'🟨Issam Chebake · Yeni Malatyaspor
82'🟨Aboubakar Kamara · Yeni Malatyaspor
85'🟨Ramazan Keskin · Bursaspor
86'🟨Iasmin Latovlevici · Bursaspor
86'🟥Diafra Sakho · Bursaspor
90'🟨Murat Yildirim · Yeni Malatyaspor
90'🟨Arturo Mina · Yeni Malatyaspor
90'🟨Bülent Cevahir · Yeni Malatyaspor
90'🟥Arturo Mina · Yeni Malatyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
10Shots9
4On target5
5Corners2
8Fouls22
7Yellow cards3
2Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricYeni MalatyasporBursaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.25
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.22
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.21
box share (last 5)0.540.68
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days23.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni Malatya Stadyumu
359.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.432.33
elo1518.021437.37
elo momentum (last 5)7.602.04
eye test v10.13-0.27
eye trend v10.330.05
first sub minute (last 10)52.9055.80
form points (last 5)9.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.231.06
keeper form v10.730.54
league points47.0034.00
league rank5.0016.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8072.00
possession avg (last 5)45.6051.80
rest days8.007.13
scorer concentration0.220.17
season ppg1.421.03
skill v1-0.09-0.39
sot against avg (last 5)5.801.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.903.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.40
state index0.19-0.33
sterile dominance v1-0.34-0.72
threat rate (last 10)0.250.30
threat rate (last 3)0.270.31
threat rate (last 5)0.270.32
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.00