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Antalyaspor 0–1 Bursaspor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Fri, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Huseyin Gocek, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bursaspor win45%2.14
Antalyaspor win28%3.48
Draw27%3.60

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Aurélien Chedjou · Bursaspor
22'🟨Umut Nayir · Bursaspor
30'🟨Umut Meraş · Bursaspor
57'🟨Aly Cissokho · Antalyaspor
71'🟨Aly Cissokho · Antalyaspor
71'🟥Aly Cissokho · Antalyaspor
74'🟨Hakan Özmert · Antalyaspor
87'🟨Burak Kapacak · Bursaspor
90'🟨Diego Angelo · Antalyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
3Shots16
1On target5
0Corners8
13Fouls20
4Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntalyasporBursaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.23
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.18
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.20
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.620.64
cards avg (last 5)2.601.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAntalya Stadyumu
coach days494.00343.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.01
corner diff avg (last 5)-5.402.20
corners against avg (last 5)7.604.20
corners for avg (last 5)2.206.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.182.27
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.10
dominance (last 5)0.340.58
elo1500.161440.96
elo momentum (last 5)6.33-16.84
eye test v1-0.36-0.51
eye trend v1-0.300.14
first sub minute (last 10)63.9052.10
form points (last 5)10.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.100.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.15
keeper form v10.670.46
league points48.0033.00
league rank9.0020.00
matches since blank7.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win2.009.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2069.20
possession avg (last 5)42.8049.40
rest days5.006.00
scorer concentration0.300.17
season ppg1.300.89
shot diff avg (last 5)-9.804.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.4016.00
skill v1-0.24-0.84
sot against avg (last 5)7.602.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.00
squad age29.6727.20
state index-0.17-0.78
sterile dominance v1-0.33-0.97
threat rate (last 10)0.250.29
threat rate (last 3)0.230.34
threat rate (last 5)0.250.32
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.60