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Alanyaspor 2–4 Konyaspor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Mon, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alper Ulusoy, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win50%1.93
Draw27%3.55
Konyaspor win23%4.30

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Jens Jønsson · Konyaspor
29'⚽Papiss Demba Cissé · Alanyaspor
31'🟨Ferhat Öztorun · Konyaspor
39'⚽Marko Jevtović · Konyaspor
40'🟨Volkan Fındıklı · Konyaspor
41'⚽Jens Jønsson · Konyaspor
45'🟨Ceyhun Gülselam · Alanyaspor
47'⚽Papiss Demba Cissé · Alanyaspor
55'🟨Welinton · Alanyaspor
71'⚽Ömer Ali Şahiner · Konyaspor
77'🟨Mustapha Yatabaré · Konyaspor
79'🟨Marko Jevtović · Konyaspor
90'🟨Papiss Demba Cissé · Alanyaspor
90'🟨Ali Turan · Konyaspor
90'⚽Paolo Hurtado · Konyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
18Shots8
7On target4
11Corners6
16Fouls13
3Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporKonyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.650.58
cards avg (last 5)3.401.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAlanya Oba Stadyumu
coach days186.00186.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.03
corner diff avg (last 5)3.40-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)2.405.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.803.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.081.99
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.09
dominance (last 5)0.570.42
elo1561.161541.74
elo momentum (last 5)-0.080.72
eye test v10.35-1.04
eye trend v10.01-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)68.1058.70
form points (last 5)8.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.15
keeper form v10.680.69
league points50.0043.00
league rank8.0013.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.0013.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.4073.20
possession avg (last 5)49.8041.80
rest days8.006.88
scorer concentration0.480.22
season ppg1.431.23
shot diff avg (last 5)4.20-2.80
shots for avg (last 5)15.608.80
skill v1-0.17-0.93
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.202.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.002.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.802.20
squad age28.6128.59
state index0.41-0.71
sterile dominance v1-0.63-0.39
threat rate (last 10)0.300.17
threat rate (last 3)0.350.17
threat rate (last 5)0.320.21
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.40