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Akhisarspor 0–2 Yeni Malatyaspor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Huseyin Gocek, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Akhisarspor win48%2.02
Draw26%3.67
Yeni Malatyaspor win26%3.78

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Mitchell Donald · Yeni Malatyaspor
34'🟨Miguel Lopes · Akhisarspor
50'⚽ (og)Miguel Lopes · Yeni Malatyaspor
61'🟨Bilal Kisa · Akhisarspor
66'⚽Thievy Bifouma · Yeni Malatyaspor
81'🟨Aboubakar Kamara · Yeni Malatyaspor
84'🟨Adem Büyük · Yeni Malatyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
19Shots12
5On target4
5Corners3
13Fouls16
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAkhisarsporYeni Malatyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.580.54
cards avg (last 5)2.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSpor Toto Akhisar Stadyumu
1.80
coach days93.002.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.14
corner diff avg (last 5)0.800.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.805.80
corners for avg (last 5)7.606.20
corners volatility (last 10)4.744.16
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.10
dominance (last 5)0.470.44
elo1428.981534.50
elo momentum (last 5)-14.332.40
eye test v10.32-0.35
eye trend v10.120.40
first sub minute (last 10)61.9046.60
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v10.680.77
league points28.0048.00
league rank21.008.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.0017.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.8075.20
possession avg (last 5)49.6046.20
rest days7.005.88
scorer concentration0.240.22
season ppg0.781.33
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.80-3.80
shots for avg (last 5)14.4011.40
skill v1-0.24-0.43
sot against avg (last 5)5.005.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.603.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.80
squad age30.5328.63
state index-0.59-0.30
sterile dominance v1-0.34-0.33
threat rate (last 10)0.240.22
threat rate (last 3)0.250.27
threat rate (last 5)0.270.25
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.00