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Ankaragücü 2–2 Rizespor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Suat Arslanboga, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rizespor win40%2.42
Ankaragücü win31%3.14
Draw29%3.34

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Musa Çağıran · Rizespor
19'🟨Tyler Boyd · Ankaragücü
26'⚽Dario Melnjak · Rizespor
51'🟨Mehmet Sak · Ankaragücü
54'🟨Chidozie Awaziem · Rizespor
58'🟨Cebrail Karayel · Ankaragücü
59'⚽İlhan Parlak · Ankaragücü
67'🟨Thibault Moulin · Ankaragücü
84'⚽Michał Pazdan · Ankaragücü
90'🟨Sedat Ağçay · Ankaragücü
90'⚽ (pen)Vedat Muriqi · Rizespor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
10Shots16
3On target5
7Corners4
15Fouls13
5Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAnkaragücüRizespor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.670.60
cards avg (last 5)2.401.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOsmanli Stadi
coach days123.00245.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.10
corner diff avg (last 5)1.20-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.804.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.580.99
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.14
dominance (last 5)0.540.59
elo1451.541568.70
elo momentum (last 5)13.18-0.90
eye test v10.310.29
eye trend v10.24-0.30
first sub minute (last 10)54.6059.90
form points (last 5)5.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.350.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
keeper form v10.800.71
league points39.0044.00
league rank14.0011.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win2.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4079.60
possession avg (last 5)48.6054.40
rest days6.007.00
scorer concentration0.210.33
season ppg1.111.26
shot diff avg (last 5)1.605.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.8015.20
skill v1-0.140.58
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.605.00
sot for avg (last 3)6.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.004.80
squad age28.7626.15
state index-0.19-0.04
sterile dominance v1-0.200.11
threat rate (last 10)0.250.27
threat rate (last 3)0.250.29
threat rate (last 5)0.260.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.60