⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Rizespor 2–7 Besiktas

← Süper Lig 2018 · Mon, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Arda Kardesler, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win40%2.42
Rizespor win33%2.94
Draw27%3.60

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Domagoj Vida · Besiktas
14'⚽Adem Ljajić · Besiktas
26'🟨Mohamed Abarhoun · Rizespor
42'⚽Vedat Muriqi · Rizespor
58'🟨Caner Erkin · Besiktas
64'⚽Burak Yılmaz · Besiktas
66'🟨Burak Yılmaz · Besiktas
70'⚽Mohamed Abarhoun · Rizespor
71'⚽Güven Yalçın · Besiktas
78'⚽Adem Ljajić · Besiktas
82'⚽Güven Yalçın · Besiktas
89'⚽Güven Yalçın · Besiktas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
19Shots11
6On target11
3Corners2
8Fouls10
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRizesporBesiktas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.44
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.490.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.580.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.630.62
cards avg (last 5)2.801.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÇaykur Didi Stadyumu
coach days219.001407.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.260.19
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.803.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.003.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.206.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.783.31
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.21
dominance (last 5)0.410.55
elo1569.601693.86
elo momentum (last 5)59.8511.00
eye test v10.440.58
eye trend v10.07-0.32
first sub minute (last 10)56.4051.40
form points (last 5)12.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.402.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.51
h2 goals (last 10)1.201.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.001.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.50
keeper form v10.750.62
league points38.0050.00
league rank12.006.00
matches since blank18.0012.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.8079.60
possession avg (last 5)49.0058.00
rest days22.9622.96
scorer concentration0.310.11
season ppg1.271.72
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.002.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.0012.60
skill v1-0.180.82
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.505.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.205.80
squad age26.5630.68
state index1.000.77
sterile dominance v10.220.75
threat rate (last 10)0.240.23
threat rate (last 3)0.220.20
threat rate (last 5)0.200.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.202.00