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Ankaragücü 1–1 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sun, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mete Kalkavan, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win50%1.93
Draw27%3.58
Ankaragücü win23%4.26

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'🟨Serdar Aziz · Fenerbahce
15'🟨Héctor Canteros · Ankaragücü
42'⚽Tyler Boyd · Ankaragücü
45'🟨Mauricio Isla · Fenerbahce
67'⚽Hasan Ali Kaldırım · Fenerbahce
68'🟨Tiago Pinto · Ankaragücü
90'🟨Dever Orgill · Ankaragücü
90'🟨Wilfried Moke · Ankaragücü
90'🟥Héctor Canteros · Ankaragücü
90'🟨Harun Tekin · Fenerbahce
90'🟥Mehmet Ekici · Fenerbahce

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots14
3On target6
5Corners7
20Fouls8
4Yellow cards3
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAnkaragücüFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.570.60
cards avg (last 5)3.202.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOsmanli Stadi
coach days96.00127.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.402.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.403.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.006.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.582.83
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.22
dominance (last 5)0.450.64
elo1429.501631.81
elo momentum (last 5)23.226.63
eye test v1-0.270.30
eye trend v10.120.28
first sub minute (last 10)51.0056.00
form points (last 5)8.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.570.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.30
keeper form v10.720.64
league points34.0034.00
league rank15.0016.00
matches since blank1.008.00
matches since clean sheet1.007.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.2082.00
possession avg (last 5)47.2058.60
rest days20.9622.96
scorer concentration0.240.18
season ppg1.101.13
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.806.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.8016.60
skill v1-0.671.12
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.604.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.60
squad age28.2729.64
state index0.010.35
sterile dominance v1-0.220.53
threat rate (last 10)0.230.25
threat rate (last 3)0.230.29
threat rate (last 5)0.220.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.20