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Trabzonspor 4–1 Antalyaspor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Fri, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Huseyin Gocek, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win60%1.60
Draw23%4.22
Antalyaspor win17%5.66

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Souleymane Doukara · Antalyaspor
21'⚽Anthony Nwakaeme · Trabzonspor
55'🟨Kamil Ahmet Çörekçi · Trabzonspor
56'🟨Charles · Antalyaspor
58'⚽Caleb Ekuban · Trabzonspor
67'⚽Olcay Şahan · Trabzonspor
90'⚽Murat Cem Akpinar · Trabzonspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
21Shots12
7On target3
8Corners1
12Fouls12
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTrabzonsporAntalyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.590.52
cards avg (last 5)2.201.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMedical Park Stadyumu
coach days308.00459.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.80-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.005.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.204.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.992.67
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.18
dominance (last 5)0.520.46
elo1612.001503.45
elo momentum (last 5)20.83-2.81
eye test v10.300.15
eye trend v1-0.240.53
first sub minute (last 10)58.7055.30
form points (last 5)11.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.203.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.15
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.30
keeper form v10.790.60
league points50.0038.00
league rank6.0012.00
matches since blank5.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.2078.60
possession avg (last 5)52.0044.60
rest days19.9619.96
scorer concentration0.260.25
season ppg1.561.23
shot diff avg (last 5)0.80-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)13.2011.20
skill v10.59-0.18
sot against avg (last 5)5.205.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.703.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.60
squad age27.5029.18
state index0.58-0.41
sterile dominance v10.25-0.26
threat rate (last 10)0.300.24
threat rate (last 3)0.260.29
threat rate (last 5)0.250.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.80