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Antalyaspor 3–0 Alanyaspor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Zorbay Kucuk, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win44%2.21
Draw29%3.39
Antalyaspor win28%3.51

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'⚽Hakan Özmert · Antalyaspor
32'⚽Souleymane Doukara · Antalyaspor
46'🟨Hakan Özmert · Antalyaspor
48'⚽Amilton da Silva · Antalyaspor
57'🟨Amilton da Silva · Antalyaspor
57'🟨Ozan Tufan · Alanyaspor
72'🟨Chico · Antalyaspor
90'🟨Baiano · Alanyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
9Shots12
4On target5
1Corners5
17Fouls10
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntalyasporAlanyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.540.79
cards avg (last 5)1.201.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAntalya Stadyumu
coach days439.00135.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.15
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.604.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.804.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.511.99
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.15
dominance (last 5)0.480.60
elo1485.141561.24
elo momentum (last 5)-26.4132.80
eye test v10.350.53
eye trend v10.67-0.44
first sub minute (last 10)52.1067.90
form points (last 5)3.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.401.40
goals against avg (last 5)3.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.950.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.45
keeper form v10.590.74
league points35.0042.00
league rank13.007.00
matches since blank0.0013.00
matches since clean sheet9.002.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0077.40
possession avg (last 5)47.4050.40
rest days4.926.00
scorer concentration0.240.52
season ppg1.171.40
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.204.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.4013.80
skill v10.160.09
sot against avg (last 5)5.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.305.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.605.60
squad age28.4129.04
state index-1.040.62
sterile dominance v1-0.43-0.18
threat rate (last 10)0.230.30
threat rate (last 3)0.270.29
threat rate (last 5)0.300.27
venue ppg (last 5)0.201.40