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Rizespor 3–0 Kayserispor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Halis Ozkahya, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rizespor win41%2.34
Draw30%3.25
Kayserispor win29%3.37

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'🟨Deniz Türüç · Kayserispor
22'⚽Vedat Muriqi · Rizespor
30'🟨Fernando Boldrin · Rizespor
38'🟨Vedat Muriqi · Rizespor
56'⚽Braian Samudio · Rizespor
59'🟨Braian Samudio · Rizespor
66'⚽ (pen)Vedat Muriqi · Rizespor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots16
6On target4
4Corners5
14Fouls10
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRizesporKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.660.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.470.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.570.47
cards avg (last 5)2.402.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÇaykur Didi Stadyumu
coach days190.0099.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.210.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-5.40-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)8.805.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.403.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.441.79
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.09
dominance (last 5)0.380.58
elo1537.291532.05
elo momentum (last 5)34.2840.20
eye test v10.04-0.12
eye trend v10.13-0.26
first sub minute (last 10)54.9060.20
form points (last 5)10.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.840.82
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.10
keeper form v10.730.78
league points32.0035.00
league rank14.0011.00
matches since blank16.006.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.6075.80
possession avg (last 5)47.2044.20
rest days8.008.00
scorer concentration0.290.17
season ppg1.141.30
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.203.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.8011.80
skill v1-0.42-0.50
sot against avg (last 5)3.602.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.104.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.00
squad age26.6831.11
state index0.420.53
sterile dominance v1-0.17-0.60
threat rate (last 10)0.260.27
threat rate (last 3)0.190.32
threat rate (last 5)0.230.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.80