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Trabzonspor 2–1 Akhisarspor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Yasar Kemal Ugurlu, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win59%1.64
Draw24%4.06
Akhisarspor win18%5.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'🟨Majid Hosseini · Trabzonspor
34'🟨Yusuf Yazıcı · Trabzonspor
62'🟨Abdulkadir Parmak · Trabzonspor
62'🟨Serginho · Akhisarspor
65'⚽Jeremy Bokila · Akhisarspor
66'🟨Kamil Ahmet Çörekçi · Trabzonspor
69'🟨Zeki Yavru · Akhisarspor
70'⚽Anthony Nwakaeme · Trabzonspor
71'🟨Jeremy Bokila · Akhisarspor
76'⚽ (pen)José Sosa · Trabzonspor
79'🟨Olcay Şahan · Trabzonspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
17Shots10
8On target4
7Corners0
20Fouls21
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTrabzonsporAkhisarspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.520.49
cards avg (last 5)0.802.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMedical Park Stadyumu
coach days281.0036.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.00-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.607.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.605.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.273.17
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.10
dominance (last 5)0.530.47
elo1600.861458.49
elo momentum (last 5)-20.855.36
eye test v10.44-0.02
eye trend v1-0.550.08
first sub minute (last 10)59.2056.10
form points (last 5)5.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.850.97
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.20
keeper form v10.760.59
league points44.0024.00
league rank6.0021.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet6.003.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.2078.00
possession avg (last 5)50.4051.40
rest days4.925.00
scorer concentration0.270.20
season ppg1.470.83
shot diff avg (last 5)1.60-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.2012.80
skill v10.480.22
sot against avg (last 5)5.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.903.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.004.40
squad age26.8229.95
state index-0.11-0.39
sterile dominance v1-0.070.16
threat rate (last 10)0.310.23
threat rate (last 3)0.230.20
threat rate (last 5)0.280.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.00