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Akhisarspor 3–1 Alanyaspor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Mon, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Serkan Tokat, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win41%2.36
Akhisarspor win30%3.22
Draw29%3.37

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

41'🟨Ceyhun Gülselam · Alanyaspor
65'🟨Rajko Rotman · Akhisarspor
65'⚽ (og)Milan Lukač · Alanyaspor
74'⚽Zeki Yavru · Akhisarspor
77'⚽Bilal Kisa · Akhisarspor
86'🟨Djalma · Alanyaspor
87'⚽Zeki Yavru · Akhisarspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
8Shots8
4On target1
5Corners4
20Fouls21
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAkhisarsporAlanyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.50
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.47
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.540.69
cards avg (last 5)3.201.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSpor Toto Akhisar Stadyumu
coach days31.00123.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.00-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)7.204.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.203.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.202.27
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.08
dominance (last 5)0.430.60
elo1440.341574.53
elo momentum (last 5)-19.3538.15
eye test v10.120.78
eye trend v1-0.050.11
first sub minute (last 10)56.6066.50
form points (last 5)1.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.201.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.202.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.420.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.45
keeper form v10.580.78
league points21.0039.00
league rank21.007.00
matches since blank0.0011.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win11.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6076.80
possession avg (last 5)48.0047.40
rest days7.969.00
scorer concentration0.240.50
season ppg0.751.39
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.204.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.0013.20
skill v10.05-0.18
sot against avg (last 5)5.203.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.905.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.007.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.606.20
squad age29.9629.42
state index-1.180.76
sterile dominance v1-0.16-0.40
threat rate (last 10)0.240.30
threat rate (last 3)0.210.29
threat rate (last 5)0.260.28
venue ppg (last 5)0.401.40