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Konyaspor 1–1 Goztep

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sun, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Abdulkadir Bitigen, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor win44%2.18
Draw30%3.19
Goztep win25%3.85

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'⚽Petar Filipovic · Konyaspor
20'🟨Leonard Žuta · Konyaspor
54'⚽Yasin Öztekin · Goztep
59'🟨Yasin Öztekin · Goztep
66'🟨Kadu · Goztep
82'🟨Ferhat Öztorun · Konyaspor
90'🟨Volkan Fındıklı · Konyaspor
90'🟨Beto · Goztep
90'🟨Kadu · Goztep
90'🟥Kadu · Goztep

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots12
7On target2
3Corners5
14Fouls11
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKonyasporGoztep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.480.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.300.57
cards avg (last 5)1.403.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKonya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu
coach days122.0030.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.09
corner diff avg (last 5)0.203.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.203.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.406.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.144.79
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.16
dominance (last 5)0.380.44
elo1573.771447.24
elo momentum (last 5)-2.21-20.24
eye test v1-0.62-0.74
eye trend v1-0.020.28
first sub minute (last 10)61.5063.60
form points (last 5)6.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.602.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.231.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.730.65
league points38.0025.00
league rank8.0019.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.007.00
matches since win4.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4074.20
possession avg (last 5)51.8047.20
rest days7.009.00
scorer concentration0.170.32
season ppg1.460.93
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.00-2.20
shots for avg (last 5)6.8010.40
skill v10.18-0.46
sot against avg (last 5)2.605.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.802.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.802.80
squad age27.9929.43
state index-0.00-0.75
sterile dominance v11.01-0.14
threat rate (last 10)0.170.21
threat rate (last 3)0.120.20
threat rate (last 5)0.130.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.60