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Sivasspor 1–2 Antalyaspor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sat, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Cuneyt Cakir, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sivasspor win62%1.56
Draw22%4.42
Antalyaspor win17%5.82

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

36'⚽Nazım Sangaré · Antalyaspor
38'🟨Amilton da Silva · Antalyaspor
45'⚽ (pen)Souleymane Doukara · Antalyaspor
65'⚽Arouna Koné · Sivasspor
67'🟨David Braz · Sivasspor
69'🟨Fredy · Antalyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
11Shots8
4On target4
7Corners5
17Fouls9
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSivassporAntalyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.24
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.590.50
cards avg (last 5)2.001.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni 4 Eylül Stadyumu
coach days114.00418.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.04
corner diff avg (last 5)2.400.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.606.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.283.27
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.15
dominance (last 5)0.550.38
elo1568.881506.25
elo momentum (last 5)21.12-34.46
eye test v10.34-0.84
eye trend v10.250.61
first sub minute (last 10)66.9050.40
form points (last 5)10.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.100.84
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.660.71
league points37.0032.00
league rank9.0012.00
matches since blank5.000.00
matches since clean sheet8.005.00
matches since win1.008.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6077.80
possession avg (last 5)50.2045.20
rest days6.004.92
scorer concentration0.250.28
season ppg1.421.23
shot diff avg (last 5)2.40-4.60
shots for avg (last 5)15.2010.80
skill v10.20-0.22
sot against avg (last 5)5.205.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.302.50
sot for avg (last 3)6.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.002.60
squad age29.7229.07
state index0.45-1.11
sterile dominance v1-0.35-0.12
threat rate (last 10)0.330.21
threat rate (last 3)0.340.30
threat rate (last 5)0.300.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.80