⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Goztep 1–3 Trabzonspor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Fri, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mustafa Ogretmenoglu, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Goztep win39%2.49
Trabzonspor win34%2.88
Draw27%3.55

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'🟨Berkan Emir · Goztep
27'⚽Hugo Rodallega · Trabzonspor
63'🟨Majid Hosseini · Trabzonspor
71'⚽ (pen)Deniz Kadah · Goztep
73'⚽Abdulkadir Parmak · Trabzonspor
89'🟨Yasin Öztekin · Goztep
90'⚽ (og)Kadu · Trabzonspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
8Shots13
1On target6
10Corners3
13Fouls9
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGoztepTrabzonspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.700.54
cards avg (last 5)3.401.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBornova Stadium
coach days21.00266.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.06
corner diff avg (last 5)3.602.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.203.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.805.80
corners volatility (last 10)4.662.37
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.17
dominance (last 5)0.470.56
elo1459.181591.18
elo momentum (last 5)-13.53-37.59
eye test v1-0.520.87
eye trend v10.44-0.60
first sub minute (last 10)64.8058.70
form points (last 5)3.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.291.16
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.670.67
league points25.0039.00
league rank19.006.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet6.003.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.0080.60
possession avg (last 5)49.0051.60
rest days5.005.00
scorer concentration0.320.27
season ppg0.961.44
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.003.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.8016.60
skill v1-0.360.50
sot against avg (last 5)5.006.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.006.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.206.00
squad age28.4525.95
state index-0.57-0.41
sterile dominance v1-0.07-0.38
threat rate (last 10)0.220.35
threat rate (last 3)0.210.31
threat rate (last 5)0.230.33
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.00