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Konyaspor 1–1 Yeni Malatyaspor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sun, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Halil Umut Meler, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor win46%2.11
Draw33%2.97
Yeni Malatyaspor win22%4.49

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

45'🟨Marko Jevtović · Konyaspor
45'🟨Petar Filipovic · Konyaspor
65'🟨Mitchell Donald · Yeni Malatyaspor
72'🟨Aboubakar Kamara · Yeni Malatyaspor
74'⚽Danijel Aleksić · Yeni Malatyaspor
76'🟨Serkan Kırıntılı · Konyaspor
76'🟨Adem Büyük · Yeni Malatyaspor
85'⚽ (pen)Adis Jahović · Konyaspor
86'🟨Adis Jahović · Konyaspor
86'🟨Fabien Farnolle · Yeni Malatyaspor
87'🟨Ali Turan · Konyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
8Shots8
4On target3
4Corners1
12Fouls18
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKonyasporYeni Malatyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.500.52
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.42
box share (last 5)0.550.53
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days101.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKonya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu
527.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)0.951.43
elo1542.061555.83
elo momentum (last 5)30.334.10
eye test v1-0.49-0.50
eye trend v10.470.39
first sub minute (last 10)61.8056.10
form points (last 5)11.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.141.45
keeper form v10.790.73
league points32.0033.00
league rank6.005.00
matches since blank0.007.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.0072.80
possession avg (last 5)46.2041.00
rest days5.738.00
scorer concentration0.180.23
season ppg1.601.65
skill v1-0.76-1.02
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.803.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.60
state index0.600.17
sterile dominance v1-0.10-0.41
threat rate (last 10)0.210.20
threat rate (last 3)0.190.22
threat rate (last 5)0.200.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.40