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Trabzonspor 1–0 Ankaragücü

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sat, Feb 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mustafa Ogretmenoglu, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win70%1.36
Draw18%5.21
Ankaragücü win11%8.49

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Hugo Rodallega · Trabzonspor
28'🟨Hüseyin Türkmen · Trabzonspor
48'🟨Wilfried Moke · Ankaragücü
66'🟨Sedat Ağçay · Ankaragücü
69'🟨Caleb Ekuban · Trabzonspor
85'🟨Anthony Nwakaeme · Trabzonspor
90'🟨Uğurcan Çakır · Trabzonspor
90'🟨Tiago Pinto · Ankaragücü

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
21Shots13
8On target5
2Corners5
19Fouls17
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTrabzonsporAnkaragücü
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.26
box share (last 5)0.490.49
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days246.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSenol Gunes Stadium
32.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.022.01
elo1590.021441.36
elo momentum (last 5)8.97-66.89
eye test v11.16-0.82
eye trend v1-0.05-0.23
first sub minute (last 10)62.3050.30
form points (last 5)8.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-3.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.603.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.400.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.141.23
keeper form v10.720.61
league points30.0020.00
league rank5.0015.00
matches since blank7.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.0010.00
matches since win2.008.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.8081.00
possession avg (last 5)49.8044.40
rest days5.884.83
scorer concentration0.230.40
season ppg1.581.05
skill v10.090.06
sot against avg (last 5)6.006.80
sot for avg (last 10)6.403.50
sot for avg (last 3)7.002.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.802.40
state index0.47-1.69
sterile dominance v1-0.710.06
threat rate (last 10)0.330.25
threat rate (last 3)0.350.22
threat rate (last 5)0.340.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.80