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Ankaragücü 0–2 Alanyaspor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Mon, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Halis Ozkahya, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win52%1.86
Draw26%3.78
Ankaragücü win22%4.30

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'🟨Erdem Özgenç · Ankaragücü
6'⚽ (pen)Djalma · Alanyaspor
11'🟨Kenan Özer · Ankaragücü
46'🟨Brice Dja Djédjé · Ankaragücü
51'🟨Merih Demiral · Alanyaspor
55'⚽Papiss Demba Cissé · Alanyaspor
87'🟨Yalçın Ayhan · Ankaragücü
87'🟨Thibault Moulin · Ankaragücü

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
8Shots10
3On target3
4Corners3
14Fouls21
5Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAnkaragücüAlanyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.36
box share (last 5)0.450.71
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days27.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOsmanli Stadi
88.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.152.70
elo1458.041478.96
elo momentum (last 5)-50.3315.44
eye test v1-0.780.39
eye trend v1-0.140.78
first sub minute (last 10)52.6056.90
form points (last 5)1.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)3.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.201.60
keeper form v10.640.71
league points20.0021.00
league rank14.0012.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet9.000.00
matches since win7.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.2074.00
possession avg (last 5)40.8044.60
rest days9.048.17
scorer concentration0.400.38
season ppg1.111.17
skill v1-0.58-0.65
sot against avg (last 5)7.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.504.60
sot for avg (last 3)2.677.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.605.20
state index-1.29-0.11
sterile dominance v1-0.56-0.99
threat rate (last 10)0.250.27
threat rate (last 3)0.240.38
threat rate (last 5)0.250.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.20