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Rizespor 3–1 Akhisarspor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sun, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Suat Arslanboga, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rizespor win43%2.27
Akhisarspor win29%3.37
Draw29%3.39

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Edin Cocalić · Akhisarspor
20'🟥Edin Cocalić · Akhisarspor
45'🟨Mohamed Abarhoun · Rizespor
70'⚽Dario Melnjak · Rizespor
72'⚽Vedat Muriqi · Rizespor
77'🟨Braian Samudio · Rizespor
82'⚽Préjuce Nakoulma · Rizespor
87'🟨Caner Osmanpaşa · Akhisarspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
25Shots9
6On target4
6Corners1
16Fouls13
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRizesporAkhisarspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.31
box share (last 5)0.620.55
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days148.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÇaykur Didi Stadyumu
148.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.462.42
elo1455.771444.22
elo momentum (last 5)11.385.29
eye test v10.62-0.48
eye trend v10.270.10
first sub minute (last 10)56.6054.10
form points (last 5)6.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.471.10
keeper form v10.710.63
league points15.0017.00
league rank18.0017.00
matches since blank7.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0079.00
possession avg (last 5)51.0047.60
rest days5.738.71
scorer concentration0.290.25
season ppg0.830.94
skill v1-0.120.07
sot against avg (last 5)6.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.302.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.003.20
state index-0.12-0.41
sterile dominance v1-0.380.10
threat rate (last 10)0.240.19
threat rate (last 3)0.240.19
threat rate (last 5)0.290.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.80