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Trabzonspor 4–1 Rizespor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sun, Dec 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Firat Aydinus, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win55%1.75
Draw25%3.85
Rizespor win20%4.94

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'⚽Abdülkadir Ömür · Trabzonspor
67'⚽Abdülkadir Ömür · Trabzonspor
74'🟨Mustafa Saymak · Rizespor
79'⚽Hugo Rodallega · Trabzonspor
84'⚽Aminu Umar · Rizespor
89'🟨Caleb Ekuban · Trabzonspor
90'🟨Kamil Ahmet Çörekçi · Trabzonspor
90'🟨Abdulkadir Parmak · Trabzonspor
90'🟨Juraj Kucka · Trabzonspor
90'🟨Fernando Boldrin · Rizespor
90'⚽Anthony Nwakaeme · Trabzonspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
18Shots13
5On target6
6Corners4
18Fouls9
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTrabzonsporRizespor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.40
box share (last 5)0.560.68
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days205.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMedical Park Stadyumu
113.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.973.34
elo1596.521449.35
elo momentum (last 5)18.012.94
eye test v11.170.51
eye trend v10.250.74
first sub minute (last 10)63.7051.30
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.320.82
keeper form v10.670.73
league points26.0012.00
league rank5.0018.00
matches since blank4.005.00
matches since clean sheet1.009.00
matches since win1.009.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6076.20
possession avg (last 5)53.6050.20
rest days6.888.10
scorer concentration0.250.33
season ppg1.630.75
skill v10.43-0.05
sot against avg (last 5)4.205.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.504.20
sot for avg (last 3)6.677.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.605.60
state index0.54-0.71
sterile dominance v1-0.51-0.25
threat rate (last 10)0.310.23
threat rate (last 3)0.350.34
threat rate (last 5)0.350.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.60