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Besiktas 2–2 Trabzonspor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sun, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Halil Umut Meler, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win47%2.06
Draw27%3.57
Trabzonspor win26%3.73

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

45'🟨Dorukhan Toköz · Besiktas
45'⚽Hugo Rodallega · Trabzonspor
47'⚽Anthony Nwakaeme · Trabzonspor
57'⚽ (og)Ogenyi Onazi · Besiktas
77'🟨Adem Ljajić · Besiktas
78'🟨Caner Erkin · Besiktas
90'🟨João Pereira · Trabzonspor
90'⚽Mustafa Pektemek · Besiktas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
18Shots14
8On target7
10Corners8
16Fouls14
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasTrabzonspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.34
box share (last 5)0.670.54
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1294.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVodafone Park
198.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.431.70
elo1666.531592.85
elo momentum (last 5)10.169.44
eye test v10.271.15
eye trend v1-0.420.40
first sub minute (last 10)42.0061.90
form points (last 5)10.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.581.34
keeper form v10.660.65
league points25.0025.00
league rank7.006.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.6081.00
possession avg (last 5)55.4055.40
rest days2.928.13
scorer concentration0.180.23
season ppg1.671.67
skill v10.140.80
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.205.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.337.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.206.40
state index0.490.33
sterile dominance v10.15-0.33
threat rate (last 10)0.260.29
threat rate (last 3)0.220.38
threat rate (last 5)0.250.35
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.40