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Yeni Malatyaspor 2–0 Antalyaspor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sun, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mete Kalkavan, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yeni Malatyaspor win45%2.16
Draw29%3.35
Antalyaspor win26%3.70

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Khalid Boutaïb · Yeni Malatyaspor
34'⚽Khalid Boutaïb · Yeni Malatyaspor
41'🟨Doğukan Sinik · Antalyaspor
43'🟨Murat Yildirim · Yeni Malatyaspor
56'🟨Maicon · Antalyaspor
72'🟨Eren Tozlu · Yeni Malatyaspor
72'🟥Sadık Çiftpınar · Yeni Malatyaspor
72'🟨Ondřej Čelůstka · Antalyaspor
72'🟥Diego Angelo · Antalyaspor
90'🟨Hakan Özmert · Antalyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
12Shots8
3On target1
2Corners2
16Fouls18
2Yellow cards4
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricYeni MalatyasporAntalyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.42
box share (last 5)0.570.62
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days471.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni Malatya Stadyumu
349.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.792.44
elo1551.731518.93
elo momentum (last 5)25.2116.04
eye test v1-0.46-0.22
eye trend v1-0.38-0.26
first sub minute (last 10)54.5062.80
form points (last 5)10.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.690.74
keeper form v10.750.80
league points25.0026.00
league rank7.004.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.2076.80
possession avg (last 5)45.2043.60
rest days7.006.90
scorer concentration0.270.27
season ppg1.671.73
skill v1-0.49-0.43
sot against avg (last 5)5.403.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.503.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.00
state index0.590.40
sterile dominance v1-0.02-0.13
threat rate (last 10)0.270.23
threat rate (last 3)0.220.20
threat rate (last 5)0.200.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.202.40