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Alanyaspor 0–0 Besiktas

← Süper Lig 2018 · Fri, Dec 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alper Ulusoy, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win42%2.29
Draw30%3.28
Alanyaspor win28%3.45

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'🟨Güven Yalçın · Besiktas
9'🟨Djalma · Alanyaspor
34'🟨Mustafa Pektemek · Besiktas
49'🟨Isaac Sackey · Alanyaspor
90'🟨Lucas Villafanez · Alanyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
13Shots9
3On target3
7Corners10
15Fouls16
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporBesiktas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.550.59
cards avg (last 5)2.002.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAlanya Oba Stadyumu
coach days36.001285.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.12
corner diff avg (last 5)5.002.20
corners against avg (last 5)1.804.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.806.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.492.84
defensive leak (last 5)0.210.12
dominance (last 5)0.590.60
elo1491.421721.85
elo momentum (last 5)-24.8915.75
eye test v1-0.210.17
eye trend v10.360.34
first sub minute (last 10)59.5040.50
form points (last 5)3.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.401.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.661.49
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.45
keeper form v10.550.63
league points18.0027.00
league rank15.004.00
matches since blank0.006.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6075.40
possession avg (last 5)54.8053.60
rest days7.004.92
scorer concentration0.500.18
season ppg1.131.69
shot diff avg (last 5)3.406.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.4015.80
skill v10.410.10
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.605.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.007.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.205.00
squad age30.0529.26
state index-0.200.84
sterile dominance v10.530.22
threat rate (last 10)0.220.25
threat rate (last 3)0.220.30
threat rate (last 5)0.210.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40