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Yeni Malatyaspor 1–1 Akhisarspor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Mon, Dec 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ozgur Yankaya, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yeni Malatyaspor win51%1.90
Draw28%3.49
Akhisarspor win21%4.52

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Abdoul Sissoko · Akhisarspor
25'🟨Caner Osmanpaşa · Akhisarspor
33'🟨Khalid Boutaïb · Yeni Malatyaspor
41'⚽Danijel Aleksić · Yeni Malatyaspor
55'🟨Mitchell Donald · Yeni Malatyaspor
66'🟨Guilherme · Yeni Malatyaspor
80'⚽Jeremy Bokila · Akhisarspor
81'🟨Fabien Farnolle · Yeni Malatyaspor
81'🟨Serginho · Akhisarspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
9Shots7
3On target3
0Corners0
16Fouls13
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricYeni MalatyasporAkhisarspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.53
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.51
box share (last 5)0.540.79
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days458.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni Malatya Stadyumu
93.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.742.10
elo1540.621434.48
elo momentum (last 5)24.57-14.38
eye test v1-0.52-0.57
eye trend v1-0.32-0.08
first sub minute (last 10)52.7054.50
form points (last 5)9.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.720.74
keeper form v10.750.56
league points21.0012.00
league rank8.0016.00
matches since blank0.006.00
matches since clean sheet1.005.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.2076.80
possession avg (last 5)44.2039.60
rest days8.043.96
scorer concentration0.280.25
season ppg1.620.92
skill v1-0.76-0.70
sot against avg (last 5)5.005.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.603.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.20
state index0.53-0.65
sterile dominance v1-0.420.06
threat rate (last 10)0.270.22
threat rate (last 3)0.220.14
threat rate (last 5)0.230.16
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.60