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Kayserispor 0–2 Trabzonspor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sat, Dec 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mustafa Ogretmenoglu, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win46%2.09
Kayserispor win29%3.37
Draw25%3.89

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'🟨Cristian Săpunaru · Kayserispor
65'🟨Mert Özyıldırım · Kayserispor
70'🟨João Pereira · Trabzonspor
81'🟨Bernard Mensah · Kayserispor
82'🟨Şamil Çinaz · Kayserispor
82'⚽Caleb Ekuban · Trabzonspor
84'🟨Tiago Lopes · Kayserispor
90'⚽Vahid Amiri · Trabzonspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
7Shots18
2On target7
2Corners5
15Fouls16
5Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporTrabzonspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.190.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.29
box share (last 5)0.470.61
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days0.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKadir Has Stadium
183.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.622.12
elo1419.861569.86
elo momentum (last 5)-24.70-18.82
eye test v1-0.920.44
eye trend v1-0.350.32
first sub minute (last 10)62.3059.60
form points (last 5)3.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.80-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.141.58
keeper form v10.590.61
league points12.0019.00
league rank17.009.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.004.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8081.80
possession avg (last 5)47.4056.00
rest days7.136.00
scorer concentration0.330.28
season ppg0.921.46
skill v10.030.93
sot against avg (last 5)5.405.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.505.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.006.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.404.80
state index-0.95-0.10
sterile dominance v10.260.14
threat rate (last 10)0.250.26
threat rate (last 3)0.200.36
threat rate (last 5)0.200.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.00