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Rizespor 1–1 Ankaragücü

← Süper Lig 2018 · Fri, Nov 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Firat Aydinus, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rizespor win48%2.03
Ankaragücü win27%3.61
Draw25%3.82

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'⚽Mostapha El Kabir · Ankaragücü
21'🟨Mostapha El Kabir · Ankaragücü
29'🟨Davide Petrucci · Rizespor
54'🟨Marwane Saadane · Rizespor
61'🟨Altay Bayındır · Ankaragücü
63'🟨Aminu Umar · Rizespor
66'⚽Aminu Umar · Rizespor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
21Shots10
6On target4
7Corners2
12Fouls6
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRizesporAnkaragücü
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.250.00
box share (last 5)0.630.61
cards avg (last 5)2.002.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÇaykur Didi Stadyumu
coach days90.00851.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.80-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)8.005.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.204.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.171.71
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.11
dominance (last 5)0.330.45
elo1458.781411.95
elo momentum (last 5)-21.8739.43
eye test v1-0.89-0.02
eye trend v10.150.23
first sub minute (last 10)54.0054.00
form points (last 5)1.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.20
keeper form v10.730.56
league points9.0019.00
league rank21.0012.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet7.004.00
matches since win7.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2074.80
possession avg (last 5)45.0046.20
rest days5.006.00
scorer concentration0.360.36
season ppg0.601.27
shot diff avg (last 5)-9.60-1.60
shots for avg (last 5)8.4011.20
skill v1-0.40-0.46
sot against avg (last 5)6.403.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.803.60
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.604.40
squad age27.5529.79
state index-1.03-0.11
sterile dominance v10.16-0.38
threat rate (last 10)0.180.22
threat rate (last 3)0.190.25
threat rate (last 5)0.180.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.20