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Konyaspor 2–0 Alanyaspor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Fri, Nov 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Halil Umut Meler, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor win54%1.79
Draw26%3.66
Alanyaspor win20%4.94

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

50'🟨Fallou Diagne · Konyaspor
50'🟨Ceyhun Gülselam · Alanyaspor
51'🟨Isaac Sackey · Alanyaspor
52'⚽ (pen)Adis Jahović · Konyaspor
58'🟨Adis Jahović · Konyaspor
61'🟥Merih Demiral · Alanyaspor
67'⚽Jens Jønsson · Konyaspor
70'🟨Nejc Skubic · Konyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
9Shots8
4On target2
2Corners3
10Fouls10
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKonyasporAlanyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.210.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.620.60
cards avg (last 5)2.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKonya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu
coach days29.0029.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.605.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.602.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.007.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.173.45
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.19
dominance (last 5)0.520.60
elo1553.021501.78
elo momentum (last 5)15.07-26.51
eye test v1-0.91-0.23
eye trend v1-0.150.65
first sub minute (last 10)57.1060.80
form points (last 5)6.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.62
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.30
keeper form v10.760.57
league points19.0018.00
league rank12.0013.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.6078.80
possession avg (last 5)45.4055.80
rest days6.906.00
scorer concentration0.290.50
season ppg1.271.20
shot diff avg (last 5)0.604.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.2012.20
skill v1-0.330.60
sot against avg (last 5)2.803.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.403.60
sot for avg (last 3)2.336.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.404.00
squad age28.8329.79
state index0.13-0.17
sterile dominance v1-0.250.56
threat rate (last 10)0.230.23
threat rate (last 3)0.250.26
threat rate (last 5)0.240.22
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.20