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Ankaragücü 1–4 Besiktas

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sat, Nov 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mete Kalkavan, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win50%1.93
Draw26%3.67
Ankaragücü win24%4.09

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽Adem Ljajić · Besiktas
27'⚽Mustafa Pektemek · Besiktas
44'⚽Güven Yalçın · Besiktas
52'🟨Necip Uysal · Besiktas
57'🟨Ricardo Faty · Ankaragücü
79'🟨Alihan Kubalas · Ankaragücü
86'⚽Mostapha El Kabir · Ankaragücü
88'⚽Oğuzhan Özyakup · Besiktas
90'🟨Cyle Larin · Besiktas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score3
15Shots15
4On target6
4Corners5
18Fouls15
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAnkaragücüBesiktas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.570.64
cards avg (last 5)2.201.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOsmanli Stadi
coach days845.001272.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.002.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.003.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.006.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.782.55
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.17
dominance (last 5)0.420.55
elo1420.001689.92
elo momentum (last 5)41.22-21.28
eye test v1-0.280.39
eye trend v10.39-0.36
first sub minute (last 10)54.0045.00
form points (last 5)9.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.101.32
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.45
keeper form v10.670.69
league points19.0018.00
league rank10.0013.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet3.009.00
matches since win1.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4079.40
possession avg (last 5)47.4055.60
rest days14.0013.00
scorer concentration0.310.22
season ppg1.361.38
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.803.60
shots for avg (last 5)9.6013.40
skill v1-0.420.65
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.804.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.005.20
squad age31.0229.41
state index0.13-0.04
sterile dominance v1-0.030.28
threat rate (last 10)0.220.22
threat rate (last 3)0.260.19
threat rate (last 5)0.210.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.40