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Alanyaspor 5–0 Kayserispor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sat, Nov 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Arda Kardesler, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win48%2.03
Draw28%3.47
Kayserispor win24%3.99

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'🟨Atila Turan · Kayserispor
45'🟨Cristian Săpunaru · Kayserispor
45'⚽ (pen)Djalma · Alanyaspor
54'🟨Baiano · Alanyaspor
57'🟨Oleksandr Kucher · Kayserispor
59'⚽Efecan Karaca · Alanyaspor
64'🟨Mert Özyıldırım · Kayserispor
66'🟨Isaac Sackey · Alanyaspor
68'🟨Papiss Demba Cissé · Alanyaspor
73'⚽Papiss Demba Cissé · Alanyaspor
79'⚽Papiss Demba Cissé · Alanyaspor
81'⚽Junior Fernandes · Alanyaspor
83'🟨Silvestre Varela · Kayserispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
15Shots5
10On target1
9Corners2
20Fouls11
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.210.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.180.28
box share (last 5)0.600.49
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days23.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAlanya Oba Stadyumu
207.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.991.49
elo1447.591435.78
elo momentum (last 5)-51.03-10.03
eye test v1-1.16-0.55
eye trend v10.11-0.16
first sub minute (last 10)58.0063.00
form points (last 5)0.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.14
keeper form v10.570.67
league points12.0012.00
league rank15.0017.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet7.002.00
matches since win5.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4078.60
possession avg (last 5)54.0045.80
rest days12.9213.88
scorer concentration0.500.33
season ppg1.001.00
skill v10.02-0.10
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.703.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.203.00
state index-0.95-0.64
sterile dominance v10.51-0.18
threat rate (last 10)0.210.26
threat rate (last 3)0.200.24
threat rate (last 5)0.190.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.60