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Besiktas 1–2 Sivasspor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sun, Nov 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Yasar Kemal Ugurlu, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win71%1.35
Draw18%5.37
Sivasspor win11%8.75

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Güven Yalçın · Besiktas
14'⚽David Braz · Sivasspor
33'🟨David Braz · Sivasspor
53'⚽Emre Kılınç · Sivasspor
67'🟨Ricardo Quaresma · Besiktas
68'🟨Dorukhan Toköz · Besiktas
68'🟨Hakan Arslan · Sivasspor
72'🟨Domagoj Vida · Besiktas
79'🟨Paul Papp · Sivasspor
88'🟨Enzo Roco · Besiktas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
9Shots10
2On target3
6Corners5
14Fouls14
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasSivasspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.18
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.29
box share (last 5)0.760.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1259.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVodafone Park
10.00
congestion 21d4.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.943.03
elo1672.571480.89
elo momentum (last 5)-35.25-1.05
eye test v10.40-0.06
eye trend v10.35-0.23
first sub minute (last 10)43.9059.80
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.351.29
keeper form v10.740.68
league points18.0011.00
league rank7.0016.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet7.000.00
matches since win2.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.6078.60
possession avg (last 5)55.2050.60
rest days2.986.02
scorer concentration0.240.36
season ppg1.641.00
skill v10.640.23
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.504.10
sot for avg (last 3)6.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.80
state index0.17-0.42
sterile dominance v10.24-0.20
threat rate (last 10)0.220.30
threat rate (last 3)0.280.30
threat rate (last 5)0.270.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.40