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Antalyaspor 1–2 Akhisarspor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sun, Nov 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ali Palabiyik, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor win48%2.00
Draw28%3.46
Akhisarspor win24%4.09

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

59'🟨Maicon · Antalyaspor
66'⚽Hélder Barbosa · Akhisarspor
67'🟨Diego Angelo · Antalyaspor
74'🟨Hakan Özmert · Antalyaspor
87'⚽Souleymane Doukara · Antalyaspor
88'🟨Josué · Akhisarspor
90'⚽Miguel Lopes · Akhisarspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
17Shots5
6On target3
8Corners7
10Fouls17
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntalyasporAkhisarspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.480.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.500.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.36
box share (last 5)0.670.60
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days314.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAntalya Stadyumu
71.00
congestion 21d2.004.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.172.54
elo1515.961443.25
elo momentum (last 5)31.17-12.69
eye test v1-0.13-0.19
eye trend v10.030.15
first sub minute (last 10)58.6053.00
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-2.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.603.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.080.94
keeper form v10.680.55
league points20.009.00
league rank5.0017.00
matches since blank3.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.2078.00
possession avg (last 5)41.0043.00
rest days8.232.92
scorer concentration0.250.25
season ppg1.820.82
skill v1-0.88-0.35
sot against avg (last 5)4.205.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.603.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.80
state index0.37-1.06
sterile dominance v1-0.63-0.45
threat rate (last 10)0.240.26
threat rate (last 3)0.240.25
threat rate (last 5)0.250.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.00