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Besiktas 4–1 Rizespor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Mon, Oct 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bulent Yildirim, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win70%1.33
Draw19%4.86
Rizespor win10%8.92

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Mustafa Pektemek · Besiktas
10'🟥Orhan Ovacıklı · Rizespor
31'🟨Ricardo Quaresma · Besiktas
40'⚽Mustafa Pektemek · Besiktas
48'🟨Domagoj Vida · Besiktas
49'⚽ (og)Enzo Roco · Rizespor
58'🟨Adriano · Besiktas
60'🟨Marwane Saadane · Rizespor
61'🟨Marwane Saadane · Rizespor
61'🟥Marwane Saadane · Rizespor
72'⚽ (og)Matic Fink · Besiktas
79'⚽Vagner Love · Besiktas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
26Shots5
12On target2
7Corners2
12Fouls12
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasRizespor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.34
box share (last 5)0.690.43
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1246.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVodafone Park
58.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.341.10
elo1670.971462.58
elo momentum (last 5)-58.7816.39
eye test v1-0.01-0.59
eye trend v1-0.11-0.08
first sub minute (last 10)48.8058.10
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.070.92
keeper form v10.670.78
league points15.008.00
league rank7.0016.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet4.002.00
matches since win4.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.4078.20
possession avg (last 5)55.8048.40
rest days3.928.27
scorer concentration0.290.22
season ppg1.670.89
skill v10.970.04
sot against avg (last 5)4.405.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.703.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.20
state index-0.08-0.05
sterile dominance v10.920.37
threat rate (last 10)0.230.21
threat rate (last 3)0.210.18
threat rate (last 5)0.200.19
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.00