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🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Fenerbahce 1–3 Ankaragücü

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sun, Oct 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Huseyin Gocek, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win65%1.47
Draw22%4.33
Ankaragücü win13%7.67

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'🟨Hasan Ali Kaldırım · Fenerbahce
35'⚽Ricardo Faty · Ankaragücü
41'🟨İsmail Köybaşı · Fenerbahce
48'🟨Martin Škrtel · Fenerbahce
54'🟨Thievy Bifouma · Ankaragücü
64'🟨Kenan Özer · Ankaragücü
71'🟨Islam Slimani · Fenerbahce
71'🟨Islam Slimani · Fenerbahce
71'🟥Islam Slimani · Fenerbahce
72'🟨Ricardo Faty · Ankaragücü
72'🟨Mostapha El Kabir · Ankaragücü
73'🟨Yassine Benzia · Fenerbahce
74'⚽ (pen)Erdem Özgenç · Ankaragücü
75'🟨Erdem Özgenç · Ankaragücü
77'⚽Mostapha El Kabir · Ankaragücü
84'🟨Kubilay Kanatsızkuş · Ankaragücü
89'⚽Michael Frey · Fenerbahce

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
13Shots17
3On target8
5Corners7
16Fouls21
4Yellow cards5
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFenerbahceAnkaragücü
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.28
box share (last 5)0.670.54
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days149.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueŞükrü Saracoğlu Stadı
818.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.69—
elo1631.721504.46
elo momentum (last 5)-16.404.07
eye test v10.36-1.35
eye trend v10.30-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)62.9052.67
form points (last 5)6.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.88—
keeper form v10.73—
league points9.0013.00
league rank15.009.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.0071.40
possession avg (last 5)51.0046.80
rest days3.027.19
scorer concentration0.400.25
season ppg1.001.44
skill v10.30-0.77
sot against avg (last 5)3.605.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.11
sot for avg (last 3)4.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.802.00
state index0.130.12
sterile dominance v1-0.280.24
threat rate (last 10)0.260.19
threat rate (last 3)0.310.17
threat rate (last 5)0.300.16
venue ppg (last 5)1.60—