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Kayserispor 2–0 Sivasspor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sun, Oct 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alper Ulusoy, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor win41%2.34
Sivasspor win30%3.21
Draw28%3.43

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

41'🟨Ziya Erdal · Sivasspor
42'🟨Levent Gülen · Kayserispor
45'🟨Robinho · Sivasspor
47'🟨Mattias Bjarsmyr · Sivasspor
53'⚽Şamil Çinaz · Kayserispor
77'🟨Muammer Yıldırım · Kayserispor
78'🟨Carl Medjani · Sivasspor
81'🟨Atila Turan · Kayserispor
89'🟨Emre Kılınç · Sivasspor
90'🟨Tiago Lopes · Kayserispor
90'🟨Robinho · Sivasspor
90'🟥Robinho · Sivasspor
90'⚽ (pen)Tjaronn Chery · Kayserispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots14
4On target2
3Corners5
13Fouls14
4Yellow cards6
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporSivasspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.33
box share (last 5)0.420.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days180.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKadir Has Stadium
149.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.121.60
elo1441.291497.15
elo momentum (last 5)-37.194.37
eye test v1-0.640.48
eye trend v1-0.220.12
first sub minute (last 10)60.3056.40
form points (last 5)1.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.201.16
keeper form v10.580.67
league points9.0010.00
league rank15.0013.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win5.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.4080.80
possession avg (last 5)46.6051.20
rest days7.907.77
scorer concentration0.400.36
season ppg1.001.11
skill v10.040.50
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.604.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.805.00
state index-0.95-0.21
sterile dominance v1-0.06-0.23
threat rate (last 10)0.250.30
threat rate (last 3)0.240.30
threat rate (last 5)0.240.31
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.40