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Bursaspor 2–0 Alanyaspor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Fri, Oct 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Halil Umut Meler, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bursaspor win53%1.84
Draw28%3.42
Alanyaspor win19%5.03

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Iasmin Latovlevici · Bursaspor
39'🟨Stéphane Badji · Bursaspor
45'⚽Aytaç Kara · Bursaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
12Shots7
7On target0
2Corners6
17Fouls17
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards—

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBursasporAlanyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.400.72
cards avg (last 5)2.002.80
coach days147.00298.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.14
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueTimsah Arena
corner diff avg (last 5)2.60-3.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.206.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.802.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.732.60
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.08
dominance (last 5)0.550.43
elo1476.131516.31
elo momentum (last 5)15.7810.05
eye test v1-0.20-0.71
eye trend v10.16-0.36
first sub minute (last 10)51.2059.00
form points (last 5)6.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.520.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v10.720.56
league points11.0015.00
league rank15.009.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.005.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.8071.40
possession avg (last 5)44.8043.00
rest days6.855.00
scorer concentration0.400.50
season ppg1.001.36
shot diff avg (last 5)2.00-3.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.009.40
skill v1-0.45-1.03
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.671.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.00
squad age25.7629.48
state index-0.02-0.01
sterile dominance v1-0.44-0.57
threat rate (last 10)0.240.24
threat rate (last 3)0.260.16
threat rate (last 5)0.260.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20