⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Goztep 2–0 Besiktas

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sun, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Firat Aydinus, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win48%2.03
Draw27%3.56
Goztep win25%3.87

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Wallace Reis · Goztep
40'🟨Jeremain Lens · Besiktas
51'⚽Cameron Jerome · Goztep
60'⚽Wallace Reis · Goztep
72'🟨Gökhan Gönül · Besiktas
90'🟨Lamine Gassama · Goztep
90'🟨Tayfur Bingöl · Goztep

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots10
5On target2
5Corners6
18Fouls14
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGoztepBesiktas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.530.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.650.64
cards avg (last 5)1.603.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBornova Stadium
coach days477.001238.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.15
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.15
corner diff avg (last 5)0.002.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.603.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.606.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.733.33
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.08
dominance (last 5)0.480.51
elo1477.481749.64
elo momentum (last 5)22.38-17.90
eye test v10.19-0.10
eye trend v10.47-0.13
first sub minute (last 10)54.2051.20
form points (last 5)9.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.40
keeper form v10.560.75
league points12.0015.00
league rank14.0010.00
matches since blank5.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.002.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.4082.60
possession avg (last 5)49.8056.80
rest days15.8814.00
scorer concentration0.560.29
season ppg1.201.88
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.800.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.2011.60
skill v10.161.06
sot against avg (last 5)3.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.80
squad age28.9430.31
state index0.010.43
sterile dominance v10.211.14
threat rate (last 10)0.220.21
threat rate (last 3)0.200.17
threat rate (last 5)0.220.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80