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Yeni Malatyaspor 4–4 Sivasspor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sun, Oct 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bulent Yildirim, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yeni Malatyaspor win39%2.50
Sivasspor win32%3.06
Draw29%3.30

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Arturo Mina · Yeni Malatyaspor
17'⚽Muhammet Demir · Sivasspor
19'🟨Ziya Erdal · Sivasspor
21'⚽Robinho · Sivasspor
24'⚽Robinho · Sivasspor
27'🟨Douglas · Sivasspor
52'🟨Douglas · Sivasspor
52'🟥Douglas · Sivasspor
62'🟨Adem Büyük · Yeni Malatyaspor
63'🟨Sadık Çiftpınar · Yeni Malatyaspor
67'⚽Mitchell Donald · Yeni Malatyaspor
75'⚽Hakan Arslan · Sivasspor
77'⚽Adem Büyük · Yeni Malatyaspor
80'🟨Eren Tozlu · Yeni Malatyaspor
80'⚽Eren Tozlu · Yeni Malatyaspor
90'🟨Robinho · Sivasspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score3
23Shots12
8On target5
5Corners3
13Fouls13
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricYeni MalatyasporSivasspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.580.60
cards avg (last 5)1.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni Malatya Stadyumu
1.20
coach days401.00128.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.20-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)7.604.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.404.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.841.78
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.18
dominance (last 5)0.510.61
elo1551.321526.28
elo momentum (last 5)3.55-22.57
eye test v10.100.32
eye trend v10.650.11
first sub minute (last 10)54.2054.30
form points (last 5)5.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.100.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.740.71
league points12.008.00
league rank12.0017.00
matches since blank4.004.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2082.60
possession avg (last 5)46.2056.00
rest days5.887.00
scorer concentration0.430.29
season ppg1.501.00
shot diff avg (last 5)0.806.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.2017.20
skill v1-0.311.01
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.604.00
sot for avg (last 3)6.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.20
squad age29.0129.04
state index0.14-0.26
sterile dominance v1-0.400.03
threat rate (last 10)0.260.27
threat rate (last 3)0.330.28
threat rate (last 5)0.260.32
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.40